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2024 May Madness

Predicting is inherently difficult, but I can't stop myself

Anyone who has ever been within earshot of us will most likely have heard us say how we feel about forecasting and making predictions. Bottom line: we do not think forecasting economic or financial variables can be done consistently with any accuracy. We do not employ economic nor market forecasts in our models. (Predicting behavior...that's another story...!)

Anyway, making predictions in ways that are safe, at least financially, is fun. Sports is good way to scratch that itch (read Predicting Madness).

So, once again, here is my college lacrosse bracket predictions. Last year (read May Madness - Final Four), I tested out a "confidence factor". This was to see if my level of confidence matched the outcome of a game. It should be no surprise to any student of behavioral economics that confidence, in fact, did not equal accuracy.

Instead of repeating the same inaccurate confidence factor, I will just say, I thought this year's bracket was quite challenging. Even some of the "sure" picks I started to second guess when making the decision. It is probably some combination of anchoring bias from previous years, recency bias from a recent game, the inherent unpredictability of sports, or plainly not knowing what I am doing (most likely reason).

Well, after Notre Dame won its first title last year, I'm thinking the Irish are going to repeat!



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